How Technology and Investment in Agriculture could Improve Spatial Clusters of Food Insecurity in Nigeria

Peter He Word count: 2420

Introduction

In the modern world, food security/hunger is one of the top sustainable development goals identified by the UN. Elimination of hunger is a top priority because it enables many other aspects of social, economical freedoms for the individual. Currently, world food production levels could sustain every individual on earth. However, hunger persists because accessibility is still greatly limited in many countries of the world. The reasons for lack of food access are always a combination of multiple factors ranging from poor policies, large wealth gaps to lack of education, and it is never only caused by a low agricultural output within the country. Generally, food security can be defined as “ Availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices” The World Economic Summit (1974) There are also four dimensions of food security that a country has to consider : food availability, food access, food utilization, and food stability.

Sen’s definition of development highlights the idea that development should be judged not only based on the increase in average incomes but on whether it creates the circumstances for people to make choices and freedoms. Food security is fundamental for human survival, and a nutritious diet increases the well-being and functionality of individuals. However, poverty remains one of the main factors to world hunger, and there are also multiple dimensions in the operation of a country that challenges the escape from a poverty trap. Economically, if food production and import lag behind the food demand, then there would be an upward trending in food prices, which could further decrease a poorer family’s wealth and deepen the root of poverty. Socially, conventions and norms are ever-changing based on the theory of coevolution, and the government needs to adopt, regulate, and reallocate resources between communities, families, and individuals of need especially between genders.

Food Security in Nigeria

In an FAO conference, Sen addressed that Africa did not have a steady increase in food availability per capita compared to Asia. This has led to Nigeria as the focus country as a relevant reference point in explaining and investigating the reason for food insecurity. Nigeria is ranked 100 out of 113 on the global food security index, which is one of the lowest followed only by other African countries, and the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis indicated that a stunning 2.6 million people still face severe food insecurity mainly in the Northeastern regions of Nigeria. As the case for most issues, there are multiple dimensions of why Nigeria remains one of the most food-insecure countries in the world. Moreover, petroleum exploration and production had greatly increased the pollution of the environment. In Nigeria’s Niger Delta region the soils and sediments, water, ecosystems had been hugely affected by the hydrocarbon waste streams, consequently, it also impacted human health, degradation of communities, and socio-economic problems in the area.

Food production in Nigeria

Nigeria relies on the production of maize, sorghum, millet, rice, and cassava as the main sources of food. Farmlands in Nigeria were scattered with the lack of large-scale agriculture. Therefore, they are highly susceptible to changing climates, and social impacts. In Nigeria, the economy has heavily relied on the oil and gas sector, but before the discovery of oil, Nigeria was reasonably self-sufficient in food production. In recent years, there’s a gradual decline in funding for the agricultural sector, leading to great peasantization of farmlands. Furthermore, because of the decreased care to the sector, Nigeria has transitioned from food self-sufficiency to food import dependence. The once staple food of millet and rice are being replaced by american produced bread. This transition of how food stability is obtained poses new challenges for food accessibility. Especially to the Northwestern parts of Nigeria, specifically the states of Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno where armed insurgent groups, disruption of basic services, and poor education of health are all obstacles in providing uninterrupted access and even distribution of food.

Food insecurity and corruption from the local level

Focusing the areas of Borno State where conflicts has created a complex system of humanitarian crisis. The main food security issues were the very unstable access to food and the subsequent coping strategies, which poses further unsustainable issues that ultimately lead to chronic malnutrition and high mortality rates in children. There are several biotic and abiotic factors influencing people’s access to food, such as looting, flooding, drought, and illnesses. These negative elements force the people to change their way of farming and often for the worse. People also have changed their diet to include wild foods that led to chronic illnesses. When all coping mechanisms fail, complete exhaustion from the lack of food is not uncommon could potentially lead to death.

Complex adaptive systems of food security in Nigeria

From an economical perspective, food insecurity in Nigeria seems to stem from the lack of funding and attention to the agriculture sector, but the underline problems reside in the governing systems. There is the existence of a “food security paradox”, where an abundant number of fertile agricultural land and ideal climates are available in combination with plentiful human resources. Therefore, according to the Harrod Domar growth model, to observe a positive growth in food production, the only factor missing is the input of capital. However, using the Ajaokuta steel works as an example, it could be said that the Nigerian government is riddled with pervasive corruption and poor policy implementations, which negatively interact with the ideal model resulting in zero net growth.

From the perspective of Kapuscinski’s book The Emperor, it could also be considered that the Nigerian state is actually extracting wealth from the population and ignoring current issues of food insecurity among other issues. Although Nigeria is a democracy with a multi-party system, the administration has turned to repression in the face of civil unrest, the Boko Haram insurgency, and the swelling of extreme poverty. Therefore, it could be said that it is sliding towards authoritarianism. However, It is interesting when viewing food insecurity issues in Nigeria from the perspective of Sen. Democratic governments are much less likely to fall victim to hunger/famine. Therefore, what could be inferred is that only a fair democratic system without corruption has the potential of exerting protective power.

When taking into account the inability of the government, lack of funding towards the important sectors such as agriculture, civil unrest, and environmental degradation. The basic living conditions of the people are in great shambles. All these factors negatively interact with one another, which creates a negative complex adaptive system or a negative feedback loop that drives current issues of poverty, food insecurity, terrorism into greater disparity. Because the legitimacy of the government is weakened, the communication with citizens and the application of policies are stalled. Civil unrest and Terrorism have made communities hazardous to live in leading to a lack of national confidence. The one-dimensional economic market makes it difficult for citizens to find jobs. The lack of basic infrastructure has led to poor health care, education, and high child mortality rates. Conclusively, all these issues led to a majority of the population being malnourished, unemployed, uneducated, and questioning their national identity. Based on this societal outlook, it is comprehensible why food is missing from more than 26 million people in the country.

Data Science Methods International organizations have longed for the opportunity to provide aid to Nigeria in an attempt to remedy these crises. However, the right methods and locations of aid support are blurry and often difficult to identify. Focusing on Food security, data science methods have been developed to identify food insecurity clusters and create models to identify and suggest actions that could potentially improve the number of malnutrition individuals. The dimension of human development will focus on the direct enhancement of human abilities, specifical improvement to the standards of living and consequently leading to a long and healthy life. People of Nigeria face many challenges that hinder healthy living. This is detrimental because if the basic need for living and survival were limited, then development is restricted as well. As stated by Sen “The world has unprecedented opulence and yet denies freedoms to vast numbers of people.”

To identify clusters where food insecurity is the most prevalent in Nigeria. Data were extracted from the South African National Income Dynamics Study(SA-NIDS) and information on food security was collected in the form of a questionnaire. Where a Likert scale of three was used with 1 being less than the need of the household, and 3 being more than the need of the household. The SA-NIDS is a representative sample because of its stratified, two-stage cluster sample design, this indicates that one random cluster sample was selected, and another random cluster sample was selected within the first. Cluster samples are also characterized by their identification of location, where a cluster could be a town, county, or city.

Using the data from SA-NIDS, geographical clusters were located using Kulldorff spatial scan statistics. Spatial clusters of households with food insecurity were identified using a space permutation model. The tests generated multiple circles with various radii at each GPS coordinate. Potential food insecurity clusters were defined as having a statistical significance of p< 0.05 when compared to zones outside of the geographical clusters, and locations are subsequently labeled as either exposed or not exposed to food insecurity. Through statistical testing locations in Adamawa, Yobe states were classified as having food insecurity.

With the identification of clusters of food insecurity, new models could be used in an attempt to predict the outcome of methods of aids and their potential benefits. Osabohien’s study investigated the potential benefits of technology investment in agriculture that can improve food security in Nigeria using an econometric technique based on an Autoregressive Distribution Lag framework(ADL) and using Solow’s technological change growth model as a framework for analyzing the potential growth based on the input of technology to the agricultural sector, specifically looking at the change in production, processing, and storage.

Using Solow’s growth model, improvement to food security is classified as observing growth in food production. This deters from the classical view that an improvement in food security of a house-hold is due to the accumulation of savings. However, in a normal Solow’s growth model, complex, adaptive factors were not considered. To combat this limitation, equitable growth and wellbeing such as savings, social protection, and technological change were also factored into the model to give greater validity to the result. ADL was used as a multi-econometric method taking into account technological changes based on Solow’s growth model. The researchers examined the effect of trade liberalization on food security issues. The common belief is that open trades are overall beneficial for all systems. However, what they found is that in the case of Nigeria it is the exact opposite. The model suggested that trade liberalization should be articulated, but the focus should be placed on the regulation of food prices, local food production, and limits on the import of food.

Greater Complexity and Difficulty of Prediction

By the identification of geographical clusters of food insecurity, it will be easier to locate the areas of need and allocate aids. The sub-sector models that the ADL and Solow’s growth model was based on could provide long-term developmental goals for the country. Following existing growth models, an increase of 5-10 percent of the national income five or ten percent of the national income then it would trigger a “virtuous circle” that pushes the country into self-sustainable growth. However, economic models do not explain or predict the growth of countries very well, because there are always more contributing factors in play that lead to the rapid economic growth of a country. In the case of Nigeria, Many uncontrollable aspects of society will constantly challenge the existing predictions and models. In order for food insecurity to be fully eliminated, there would need to be an instantaneous change to poor governmental policies, increase in societal security, great capital input into the agricultural sector, and eradication of terrorism, which are not likely to happen in a short period of time. Furthermore, it takes experimentation and gradual improvement to the current and future systems to perfect a country to be stable and self-sustainable to a level that eliminates hunger. Uncontrollable factors and the unknown interaction of a complex adaptive system is the precise reason the SDGs proposed by the UN are aimed at the year 2030.

Gap in literature and central research question

Reflection

My work so far has aimed to understand the current and past situation of how Nigeria came to be in the position that is in. The great number of unfreedoms limits the individual to create circumstances for themselves to be successful in society. The two data science methods I focused on identified the weak and vulnerable location in Nigeria for food security. However, it is lacking clear scientific evidence of how different adaptive factors directly contributed to the issue of food security and subsequently poverty. There are also factors such as tribalism that are not explored. Future research should be focused on how firms and institutions adopt this system, and how governmental policy implementations are affecting the current food security crisis and consider isomorphic mimicry implications of them. On the other hand, more research should be conducted on the full understanding of how geographical clusters and other data science methods are developed and articulated in the context of Nigeria.

https://www.actionagainsthunger.org/countries/africa/nigeria

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/328286959.pdf

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/REACH_NGA_Factsheet_Thematic-Assessment-FSL-Borno_August-September-2020.pdf

https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2006/32/c032p229.pdf